City of Calgary, January 2, 2019 –
As oversupply continues in Calgary’s housing market, December prices eased by one per cent compared to last month and are over three per cent below last December.
“Persistent weakness in the job market and changes in the lending market impacted sales activity in the resale market this year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
“This contributed to elevated supply in the resale market, resulting in price declines.”
December sales totalled 794 units, a 21 per cent decline over the previous year. Overall year-to-date sales in the city totalled 16,144 units. This is a 14 per cent decline over 2017 and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.
Inventory levels in December sat at 4,904 units. This is well above levels recorded last year and 30 per cent above typical levels for the month. Elevated resale inventories in 2018 were caused by gains in the detached and attached sectors.
Throughout 2018, the months of supply remained elevated and averaged 5.2 months. This contributed to the annual average benchmark price decline of 1.5 per cent. Price declines occurred across all product types and have caused citywide figures to remain over nine per cent below the monthly highs recorded in 2014.
“Both buyers and sellers faced adjustments in expectations this year. Sellers had to compete with more choice in the resale market, but also the new-home market,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.
“With less people looking for a home, it became a choice between delaying when to sell or adjusting the sale price. However, buyers looking for more affordable product did not find the same price adjustments that existed in some of the higher price ranges.”
More information on the 2018 housing market will be released at CREB®’s 2019 Forecast Conference & Tradeshow (www.crebforecast.com) on Jan. 30, 2019.
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached sales declined across all districts in 2018. With citywide sales of 9,945 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the year.
Detached inventories were higher than last year’s levels for each month of the year, including December. Slow sales caused the market to be oversupplied through most of 2018.
Detached benchmark prices totalled $481,400 in December, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. Overall, 2018 prices declined by 1.5 per cent compared to last year.
Prices have eased across most districts in 2018. The largest declines this year have occurred in the North East, North West and North districts.
Apartment sales totalled 2,663 units in 2018. While the decline is less than other product types, levels are 22 per cent below long-term averages.
The apartment condominium sector has struggled with oversupply for almost three years and 2018 was no exception.
However, supply has been easing, as inventories this year averaged 1,584 units, one per cent below last year’s levels.
Despite slowing supply growth, the market remained oversupplied, causing further price declines. In December, benchmark prices were $251,500, over two per cent below last year. Annually, prices have declined by nearly three per cent for a total decline of 14 per cent since 2014.
Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.
Declines for both row and semi-detached product resulted in 2018 attached sales of 3,536 units, a 15 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
Slower sales activity prompted some pull-back in new listings, but this was limited to the row sector. Row new listings declined by four per cent and semi-detached new listings rose by nearly 15 per cent in 2018.
Despite some adjustments to new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, keeping the market in buyers’ market territory and putting downward pressure on prices.
In December, the semi-detached benchmark price totalled $397,500. This is a monthly and year-over-year decline of 0.8 and 3.8 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as 2018 prices remain just below 2017 levels. Overall, annual prices remain 1.4 per cent below 2014 peak levels.
Row prices have also been edging down. As of December, row prices were $288,400, a 1.5 per cent decline from last month and nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, 2018 prices remain two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
In 2018, the Airdrie housing market was distinctly marked by oversupply and signs of buyers’ market conditions. Compared to last year, inventory levels and months of supply have been significantly higher, combined with lower levels of sales. This has led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
Annual residential sales exhibited a year-over-year decline of 14 per cent and were almost 19 per cent lower than activity over the past 5 years. This consistent decline was observed across all product types.
Supply in 2018 was at record-high levels, with new listings achieving a new year-to-date peak for most of the year. Inventories have also been continuously increasing throughout this year and are 12 per cent higher than in 2017. Months of supply have increased steadily and averaged 5.6 months in 2018.
Persistent oversupply has resulted in a decline in Airdrie prices. In 2018 detached benchmark prices averaged $369,042, over two percent below last year
Declining by 64 units, 2018 sales in Cochrane were lower than the previous year. However, an annual count of 599 sales remains comparable to activity over the past three years.
In 2018 there were 1,288 new listings, the highest on record. Elevated new listings and easing sales resulted in rising inventories and months of supply that averaged nearly 7 months.
Elevated supply has caused detached prices to trend down over the second half of the year, however, it was not enough to offset earlier gains. In 2018, detached benchmark prices have remained comparable to last year.
2018 residential sales in Okotoks were 463 units, a decline over last year and comparable to 2010 activity.
Gains in new listings combined with slower sales resulted in rising inventory and excess supply in this market.
Despite increased supply and weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks showed modest increases in 2018. The average detached benchmark price totalled $434,875, which is one per cent higher than last year.
City of Calgary, December 3, 2018 –
Sitting below long-term averages, November sales in the city totaled 1,171 units.
For the year so far, sales activity has totaled 15,349 units, a 14 per cent decline over last year and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.
"Recent challenges in the energy sector have weighed on consumer confidence over the past month. Combined with weakness in the employment market and further gains in lending rates, this is impacting ownership demand," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.
New listings eased by seven per cent in November compared to last year. The adjustment in new listings has helped prevent further inventory gains, with 6,501 units in overall inventory, but levels remain well above the 5,683 units in inventory seen last year and 32 per cent higher than typical levels for November.
"Higher inventories and weaker sales are resulting in buyer's market conditions and price declines," said Lurie.
The citywide benchmark price was $422,600 in November, nearly one per cent lower than last month and over three per cent below last year's levels.
Year-to-date sales have slowed across all price ranges, except product priced below $200,000, which now represents nearly six per cent of all sales. The largest decline in sales has occurred in the $600,000 - $999,9999 range.
"In any market, affordable product is always desirable," said CREB® president Tom Westcott.
"For buyers, it may mean being able to step into a home that was previously unattainable. It also means that sellers need to be keenly aware what is successfully selling in their neighbourhood and surrounding communities."
HOUSING MARKET FACTS
Detached sales declined across all districts in November. With citywide sales of 679 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the month.
New listings eased by three per cent compared to last year, due to declines mostly in the North East, North and South East districts. Year-to-date new listings this year have increased in all areas except the North East and East districts.
Inventories in the detached sector totaled 3,491 units, 26 per cent higher than last year's levels. Months of supply sits at five months, well above the three-month typical for November.
Detached benchmark prices totaled $486,000 in November, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. This is nearly seven per cent below monthly highs recorded in October 2014.
Prices have eased across all districts in November. On a year-to-date basis, the largest declines this year have occurred in the North East and North districts. This is likely due to the increased competition from the new-home sector. The districts that remain furthest from price recovery are the North West and South districts.
Despite year-over-year gains in sales in November, citywide apartment sales have totaled 2,557 units so far this year. This is five per cent lower than last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
The majority of activity in condos is located within the city centre, representing nearly 48 per cent of all the sales activity.
Following years of oversupply, the number of new listings in the apartment sector continues to ease, helping prevent further significant gains in inventories and even contributing to inventory reductions in the South, East and North East districts.
Despite some adjustments in inventories, most areas continue to struggle with oversupply, causing further price declines. Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.
Year-to-date attached sales totaled 3,344 units, a 16 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. Sales activity eased across most districts except for the North East, where sales remained relatively stable because of improvements in row activity.
Overall, rising new listings continue to place upward pressure on inventory levels and the gains have mostly occurred with semi-detached product.
Oversupply conditions have weighed on prices. In November, the semi-detached benchmark price totaled $400,700. This is a monthly and year-over year decline of 0.67 and 3.3 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as year-to-date prices remain comparable to 2017 levels.
Row prices have also been edging down, but at a slower pace than semi-detached product. As of November, row prices were $292,900, a 0.2 per cent decline from last month and just over three per cent below last year's levels. Overall, year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent below last year's levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
The Airdrie housing market continues to experience declining sales and increasing inventory. Persistently elevated levels of supply have led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
Year-to-date sales activity in Airdrie has declined year-over-year by 142 units, with current levels at 1,101 units. Levels of new listings are comparable to last year but remain higher than long-term averages.
Year-to-date average inventory is almost 18 per cent higher than the same period in 2017, keeping average months of supply at around six months. This continued pressure has resulted in a decline in house prices, with year-to-date benchmark value of detached homes now sitting at $342,773, which is a year-over-year decline of nearly two percent.
Year-to-date, residential sales have declined by 58 units, totaling 573 units so far in 2018. These levels are comparable to similar periods in the past few years and are higher than long-term averages.
New listings continue to reach historical peaks for each period this year, with levels so far in 2018 being 308 units higher than long-term averages. Months of inventory remain elevated, with year-to-date average inventory levels being 14 per cent higher than in 2017.
Despite some recent declines, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year.
Year-to-date residential sales have declined to 449 units in 2018 and are comparable to levels from 2010.
New listings have remained slightly higher than last year's levels. Oversupply continues in this market, with year-to-date average inventories being 53 units higher compared to 2017.
Despite increased supply with weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks show modest increases. Year-to-date, the average detached benchmark price totaled $436,091, 1.5 per cent higher than last year.